Consumer goods firms and auto companies are witnessing an upturn in rural demand, which had been lagging for most of FY24. Expectations of a bumper rabi crop harvest have helped turn the tide. The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) Monetary Policy Committee kept the repo rate unchanged last week, noting that as rural demand catches up, consumption is expected to support economic growth in 2024-25.
Exports dropped 3.1 per cent in June from a year earlier, the first decline since January last year while imports went down 0.7 per cent, General Administration of Customs said on Wednesday.
Survey likely to be tabled in July by the new government.
'The revenue projection arises out of all sectors doing well and the formalisation of the economy helps in making sure the tax domain gets widened.'
It is striking how quickly the over-hyped optimism over the evolving India economic story has given way to a reality check in general and pessimism over the economic outlook in particular. Capital inflows into India were attracted by the increasing domestic and global acknowledgement of the favourable structural economic shifts.
India's economic growth is likely to shrink by 1.25 per cent to 7.9 per cent this fiscal, mainly on account of tight monetary conditions and continued pressure on inflation, the International Monetary Fund said on Friday. The IMF report also warned that investment would be more affected than consumption on account of the tight monetary conditions and fall in global economy following US sub-prime crisis. Compared to China, India has little fiscal space to keep up the growth.
Bank stability and safety are still high on corporate and investor agendas, says a Global Finance study.
India's gold demand rose 8 per cent annually to 136.6 tonne in the March quarter helped by a strong economic environment despite prices touching historic highs, according to the World Gold Council. The aggressive gold buying by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) also contributed to the rise in demand. India's gold demand in value terms rose 20 per cent on an annual basis to Rs 75,470 crore during the January-March period of this year on volume growth as well as a rise in quarterly average prices by 11 per cent.
Asian Development Bank on Thursday pegged India's economic growth at 7.4 per cent for 2004 and said high growth is likely to be sustained in medium term.
Moody's Investors Service on Friday projected India's growth at zero per cent for the current fiscal and said the negative outlook on sovereign rating reflects increasing risks that GDP growth will remain significantly lower than in the past. The outlook also partly shows weaker policy effectiveness to address economic and institutional issues, it noted in the update to its November 2019 rating forecast.
The services sector growth in India fell to a one-year low in November on softer expansions in new work intakes and output, despite receding price pressures, a monthly survey said on Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services Business Activity Index fell from 58.4 in October to a one-year low of 56.9 in November. Despite witnessing a month-on-month decline, the rate of expansion was stronger than its long-run average.
'While Indian markets are indeed not inexpensive, the valuations of largecap stocks are still a considerable distance from being overstretched.'
Substantial gains can still be made with good policies and initiatives.
S&P Global Ratings on Monday retained India's GDP growth forecast at 6 per cent saying it will be the fastest growing economy among Asia Pacific nations. The GDP growth forecast for the current and the next fiscal has been kept unchanged from the forecast made in March partly on account of domestic resilience. "We see the fastest growth at about 6 per cent in India, Vietnam, and the Philippines, S&P Global Ratings said in its quarterly economic update for Asia-Pacific.
The Reserve Bank of India said that the ongoing momentum in economic growth is likely to remain robust in the rest of 2006-07 along with expectation of lower increase in selling prices, exports and imports.
'The Budget will be positive, continuing on the path of growth taken so far.'
In 2007-08, the farm sector growth stood at 4.5 per cent, while it was 3.8 per cent and 5.9 per cent in 2006-07 and 2005-06, respectively. The report, which was released on Wednesday by outgoing council Chairman C Rangarajan, said the lower growth projection is in part due to the base effect of very high growth in 2007-08 and the weak South-West monsoon over peninsular, central and western India in July.
The International Monetary Fund on Thursday asked India to "very carefully" look at the much-touted Special Economic Zones, saying the giveaways and tax sops to the zones could divert industrial activity from the rest of the country.
Showing the effect of the slowdown in global economic activity, the equity foreign direct investment (FDI) into India declined sharply to $13.9 billion in April-July 2023 from $22.04 billion a year ago. The net FDI, inflows minus outflows, declined from $17.28 billion in April-July 2022 to $5.70 billion in April-July 2023 on account of moderating gross FDI and a rise in repatriation. Gross FDI into India moderated to $22.0 billion during April-July 2023 from $29.6 billion a year ago, according to Reserve Bank of India data.
Kotak Bank was the top loser in the Sensex pack, cracking around 6 per cent, followed by Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Finance, Maruti and HDFC twins. On the other hand, HUL, HCL Tech, ITC and Nestle India were among the gainers.
'We emphasise the importance of not basing investment decisions solely on electoral outcomes.' 'Instead, focusing on investing in high-quality businesses capable of prospering regardless of the political landscape is paramount.'
The rating outlook change is relevant now, as the US Federal Reserve is set to end its monthly bond-buying programme in October.
Order inflows during the quarter-ended September declined 31.5 per cent compared to the level a year ago. Companies are still not committing fresh capital expansion.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday raised the GDP growth projection for the current fiscal to 7 per cent from 6.5 per cent earlier on buoyant domestic demand and higher capacity utilisation in the manufacturing sector. Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, however, flagged protracted geopolitical turmoil and global economic fragmentation as risks to the growth outlook. The RBI kept interest rates unchanged at 6.5 per cent in Friday's monetary policy statement.
Commodity investments can help you diversify your portfolio in asset classes other than equity and debt, says Dwaipayan Bose.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its real export growth forecast for India for 2008 to 13.2 per cent from its April forecast of 16.3 per cent.
Indian growth in the rest of this fiscal year and next will be propelled by robust domestic consumption as consumer confidence improves, and by investment, including large increases in government capital expenditure, according to the Asian Development Outlook September 2023. "As slowing exports could foment headwinds for the economy, and erratic rainfall patterns are likely to undermine agricultural output, the growth forecast for FY2023 is revised down marginally to 6.3 per cent," ADB said.
Asia's richest man, Mukesh Ambani, signed off an address to employees last week by assuring them that 2024 would be better than 2023 for both Reliance Industries and India. Ambani isn't an exception. Promoters and their representatives from several other conglomerates have expressed similar optimism.
'The fiscal deficit target of 3.9 per cent of GDP seems achievable.'
'What my Labour government will seek with India is a relationship based on our shared values of democracy and aspiration. That will seek a free trade agreement (FTA), we share that ambition, but also a new strategic partnership for global security, climate security, economic security'
Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee on Wednesday said Indian markets cannot remain immune to the Eurozone debt problems and will feel the impact if the $1 trillion bailout package by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund does not inspire confidence.
The Prime Minister's EAC is expected to give its outlook on economy for the current fiscal in a week's time.
The Indian economy, severely hit by the coronavirus pandemic, is projected to contract by a massive 10.3 per cent this year, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday. However, India is likely to bounce back with an impressive 8.8 per cent growth rate in 2021, thus regaining the position of the fastest growing emerging economy, surpassing China's projected growth rate of 8.2 per cent, the IMF said in its latest 'World Economic Outlook' report.
'As China's reopening euphoria fizzled out on the back of some disappointing economic data, we saw inflows coming back to India with full force in the past 3-4 months.'
Getting ministers from various parties in the new coalition to pull in the same direction is the real challenge.
'Imagine what the BJP's urges would be if India's electorate awarded it truly brute majorities like the 400 plus seats the prime minister called for in the 2024 general elections?' asks Shyam G Menon.
